Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
36 seats, apportioned by share. A Hare quota of 94,723 votes buys one seat; 13 of the 36 were settled on largest remainder.
Why FR_SOU voters lean toward Albert Picard over Gerard Leroy. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Gerard Leroy's vote can be persuaded across to Albert Picard, and 20.0% of Albert Picard's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.5 pts of that movable slice.