/DUB
1958 DUB Dáil Race · 42 seats
CompletedFinal Election Results
Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
Final Results302.7k votes cast · 25 turns
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
 Joseph NolanNPP Labour | 99.1k | 32.7% |
 Tadhg HayesNPP Fianna Fáil | 78.2k | 25.8% |
 Michael EganNPP Fianna Fáil | 73.9k | 24.4% |
 Fine Gael | 51.5k | 17.0% |
Persuasion Drivers
DUBWhy DUB voters lean toward Michael Egan over Stephen O'Carroll. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Persuasion drivers (pts of the persuadable slice)
Candidate Support0.0 pts
Policy alignment+0.6 pts
Money0.0 pts
Incumbency0.0 pts
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Stephen O'Carroll's vote can be persuaded across to Michael Egan, and 20.0% of Michael Egan's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.6 pts of that movable slice.
Election Trends
Auto-scaled
Joseph NolanTadhg HayesMichael EganStephen O'Carroll