Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Fianna Fáil | 67.6k | 56.4% |
Niall MurrayNPP Labour | 30.8k | 25.7% |
Colm DohertyNPP Fine Gael | 21.4k | 17.9% |
Why DON voters lean toward Niall Murray over Colm Doherty. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Colm Doherty's vote can be persuaded across to Niall Murray, and 20.0% of Niall Murray's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.5 pts of that movable slice.