Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
Turnout starts with this electorate's usual rate, then responds to the race and campaign.
A single seat, decided on plurality. Sean Doherty holds 30.6% against 23.9% for the nearest rival.
Why DUB voters lean toward Sean Doherty over Joe Costello. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Joe Costello's vote can be persuaded across to Sean Doherty, and 20.0% of Sean Doherty's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 2.0 pts of that movable slice.