/DUB
1954 DUB Gubernatorial Race
CompletedFinal Election Results
Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
Final Results332.7k votes cast · 49 turns
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
 Tadhg HayesNPP Fianna Fáil | 121.0k | 36.4% |
 Fine Gael | 111.0k | 33.3% |
 Labour | 100.8k | 30.3% |
Vote share
Persuasion Drivers
DUBWhy DUB voters lean toward Colm McCarthy over Tadhg Hayes. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Persuasion drivers (pts of the persuadable slice)
Candidate Support0.0 pts
Policy alignment-0.4 pts
Money0.0 pts
Incumbency0.0 pts
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Tadhg Hayes's vote can be persuaded across to Colm McCarthy, and 20.0% of Colm McCarthy's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.4 pts of that movable slice.
Election Trends
Auto-scaled
Tadhg HayesColm McCarthyStephen Kennedy