Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Fianna Fáil | 104.1k | 58.8% |
Liam McKennaNPP Labour | 41.5k | 23.4% |
David FlynnNPP Fine Gael | 31.4k | 17.8% |
Why GAL voters lean toward Liam McKenna over David Flynn. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of David Flynn's vote can be persuaded across to Liam McKenna, and 20.0% of Liam McKenna's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.2 pts of that movable slice.