Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Fianna Fáil | 103.4k | 54.0% |
Liam McKennaNPP Labour | 50.2k | 26.2% |
David FlynnNPP Fine Gael | 37.8k | 19.7% |
Why GAL voters lean toward David Flynn over Eilis O'Connor. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Eilis O'Connor's vote can be persuaded across to David Flynn, and 20.0% of David Flynn's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.4 pts of that movable slice.