Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Fianna Fáil | 50.6k | 51.4% |
Labour | 30.0k | 30.4% |
Ronan QuinnNPP Fine Gael | 17.9k | 18.2% |
Why KIL voters lean toward Sinead O'Connor over Ronan Quinn. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Ronan Quinn's vote can be persuaded across to Sinead O'Connor, and 20.0% of Sinead O'Connor's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.0 pts of that movable slice.