Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
Turnout starts with this electorate's usual rate, then responds to the race and campaign.
A single seat, decided on plurality. Fionn Hickey holds 31.9% against 19.5% for the nearest rival.
Why LIM voters lean toward Fionn Hickey over Desmond O'Malley. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Desmond O'Malley's vote can be persuaded across to Fionn Hickey, and 20.0% of Fionn Hickey's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 1.8 pts of that movable slice.