Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Liam ReillyNPP Fianna Fáil | 52.2k | 54.5% |
Mary KellyNPP Labour | 25.9k | 27.0% |
Fine Gael | 17.7k | 18.5% |
Why DON voters lean toward Kieran O'Carroll over Liam Reilly. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Liam Reilly's vote can be persuaded across to Kieran O'Carroll, and 20.0% of Kieran O'Carroll's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.2 pts of that movable slice.