Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
Turnout starts with this electorate's usual rate, then responds to the race and campaign.
62 seats, apportioned by share. A Hare quota of 5,456 votes buys one seat; 8 of the 62 were settled on largest remainder.
Why DUB voters lean toward Aisling Burke over Colm Burke. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Colm Burke's vote can be persuaded across to Aisling Burke, and 20.0% of Aisling Burke's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.2 pts of that movable slice.