Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
Turnout starts with this electorate's usual rate, then responds to the race and campaign.
18 seats, apportioned by share. A Hare quota of 5,874 votes buys one seat; 4 of the 18 were settled on largest remainder.
Why LIM voters lean toward Nuala Mooney over Caitriona Fitzgerald. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Caitriona Fitzgerald's vote can be persuaded across to Nuala Mooney, and 20.0% of Nuala Mooney's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 1.2 pts of that movable slice.