/MID
PreviousNext
1960 MID Local Council Race · 12 seats
General ElectionGeneral Election — Live Projection
Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
Live Vote Tally13.9k votes cast · 6 turns
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
 Aoife PhelanNPP Labour | 4.7k | 33.5% |
 James HickeyNPP Fianna Fáil | 3.6k | 26.3% |
 Fianna Fáil | 3.0k | 21.3% |
 Fine Gael | 1.5k | 10.9% |
 Fine Gael | 1.1k | 8.0% |
Persuasion Drivers
MIDWhy MID voters lean toward James Hickey over Mark Gallagher. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Persuasion drivers (pts of the persuadable slice)
Candidate Support0.0 pts
Policy alignment+0.8 pts
Money0.0 pts
Incumbency-0.0 pts
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Mark Gallagher's vote can be persuaded across to James Hickey, and 20.0% of James Hickey's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.8 pts of that movable slice.
Coattail tilts (direct % of vote share)
Gubernatorial Coattails+0.1%
Election Trends
Auto-scaled
Aoife PhelanJames HickeyMalachy HoganMark GallagherCillian McKenna