Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Fine Gael | 3.3k | 26.9% |
Fianna Fáil | 3.0k | 24.4% |
Labour | 2.3k | 18.5% |
Fianna Fáil | 1.9k | 15.4% |
Labour | 1.8k | 14.8% |
Why WEX voters lean toward Sarah Gallagher over Margaret O'Reilly. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Margaret O'Reilly's vote can be persuaded across to Sarah Gallagher, and 20.0% of Sarah Gallagher's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.6 pts of that movable slice.