Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Fine Gael | 33.5k | 36.5% |
Labour | 26.7k | 29.0% |
Fianna Fáil | 17.2k | 18.7% |
Fianna Fáil | 14.6k | 15.8% |
Why WEX voters lean toward Sarah Gallagher over Padraig Sullivan. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Padraig Sullivan's vote can be persuaded across to Sarah Gallagher, and 20.0% of Sarah Gallagher's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.1 pts of that movable slice.