Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
10 seats, apportioned by share of 721,880 votes cast.
Why IT_SAR voters lean toward Simona Fontana over Ivano Conte. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Ivano Conte's vote can be persuaded across to Simona Fontana, and 20.0% of Simona Fontana's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -1.0 pts of that movable slice.