Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
Turnout starts with this electorate's usual rate, then responds to the race and campaign.
A single seat, decided on plurality. Masashi Kimura holds 96.9% against 3.1% for the nearest rival.
Why KAN voters lean toward Masashi Kimura over Sora Kuroki. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Sora Kuroki's vote can be persuaded across to Masashi Kimura, and 20.0% of Masashi Kimura's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 1.5 pts of that movable slice.