Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
A single seat, decided on plurality. Haruto Kimura took 45.7% against 34.5% for the nearest rival.
Why TOH voters lean toward Noboru Ueda over Haruto Kimura. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Haruto Kimura's vote can be persuaded across to Noboru Ueda, and 20.0% of Noboru Ueda's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.1 pts of that movable slice.