Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
581 seats, apportioned by share. A Hare quota of 9,570 votes buys one seat; 2 of the 581 were settled on largest remainder.
Why KAN voters lean toward Shin Hayashi over Haruka Kaneko. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Haruka Kaneko's vote can be persuaded across to Shin Hayashi, and 20.0% of Shin Hayashi's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.4 pts of that movable slice.