Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
Turnout starts with this electorate's usual rate, then responds to the race and campaign.
22 seats, apportioned by share. A Hare quota of 73,095 votes buys one seat; 1 of the 22 were settled on largest remainder.
Why CHU voters lean toward Ryota Aoki over Minoru Kudo. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Minoru Kudo's vote can be persuaded across to Ryota Aoki, and 20.0% of Ryota Aoki's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 1.3 pts of that movable slice.