Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
Turnout starts with this electorate's usual rate, then responds to the race and campaign.
86 seats, apportioned by share. A Hare quota of 84,186 votes buys one seat; 1 of the 86 were settled on largest remainder.
Why CHU voters lean toward Nariyoshi Miyagi over Yasuda Aoi. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Yasuda Aoi's vote can be persuaded across to Nariyoshi Miyagi, and 20.0% of Nariyoshi Miyagi's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.8 pts of that movable slice.