Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
Turnout starts with this electorate's usual rate, then responds to the race and campaign.
20 seats, apportioned by share. A Hare quota of 67,436 votes buys one seat; 1 of the 20 were settled on largest remainder.
Why SHI voters lean toward Yoshi Nakamura over Shun Okamoto. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Shun Okamoto's vote can be persuaded across to Yoshi Nakamura, and 20.0% of Yoshi Nakamura's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.8 pts of that movable slice.