Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
National Council of Nigeria and the Cameroons | 506.4k | 41.1% |
Seun AdeolaNPP Action Group | 491.1k | 39.9% |
Northern People's Congress | 234.7k | 19.0% |
Why SOUTH_EAST voters lean toward Babatunde Ogunleye over Seun Adeola. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Seun Adeola's vote can be persuaded across to Babatunde Ogunleye, and 20.0% of Babatunde Ogunleye's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.1 pts of that movable slice.