Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Adamu OnyekaNPP Action Group | 494.8k | 38.8% |
National Council of Nigeria and the Cameroons | 425.1k | 33.3% |
Northern People's Congress | 355.5k | 27.9% |
Why SOUTH_EAST voters lean toward Daniel Adesanya over Adamu Onyeka. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Adamu Onyeka's vote can be persuaded across to Daniel Adesanya, and 20.0% of Daniel Adesanya's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.1 pts of that movable slice.