Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|
National Council of Nigeria and the Cameroons | 400.2k | 35.0% | 9 |
Northern People's Congress | 378.2k | 33.1% | 9 |
Action Group | 363.9k | 31.9% | 8 |
Why NORTH_CENTRAL voters lean toward Safiya Babalola over Sadiq Nwosu. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Sadiq Nwosu's vote can be persuaded across to Safiya Babalola, and 20.0% of Safiya Babalola's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.8 pts of that movable slice.