Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|
Northern People's Congress | 540.3k | 39.6% | 14 |
National Council of Nigeria and the Cameroons | 417.3k | 30.5% | 10 |
Action Group | 408.4k | 29.9% | 10 |
Why NORTH_WEST voters lean toward Sani Ojo over Chidi Olawale. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Chidi Olawale's vote can be persuaded across to Sani Ojo, and 20.0% of Sani Ojo's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.9 pts of that movable slice.