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1960 NORTH_WEST House of Representatives Race · 34 seats
General ElectionGeneral Election — Live Projection
Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
Projected seat allocation
Tope Adebowale leads with 14 of 34 seats
Tope Adebowale14 seats
Sani Ojo13 seats
Chidi Olawale7 seats
Seats update each turn from the current vote count, using largest-remainder allocation. Final allocation is set when the election closes.
Live Vote Tally496.1k votes cast · 27 turns
| Candidate | Votes | Share | Seats |
|---|---|---|---|
 Action Group | 199.5k | 40.2% | 14 |
 Sani OjoNPP Northern People's Congress | 186.0k | 37.5% | 13 |
National Council of Nigeria and the Cameroons | 110.7k | 22.3% | 7 |
Persuasion Drivers
NORTH_WESTWhy NORTH_WEST voters lean toward Tope Adebowale over Chidi Olawale. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Persuasion drivers (pts of the persuadable slice)
Candidate Support0.0 pts
Policy alignment+0.6 pts
Money0.0 pts
Incumbency+0.3 pts
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Chidi Olawale's vote can be persuaded across to Tope Adebowale, and 20.0% of Tope Adebowale's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.9 pts of that movable slice.
Election Trends
Auto-scaled
Tope AdebowaleSani OjoChidi Olawale