Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
137 seats, apportioned by share of 3,337,404 votes cast.
Why NORTH_EAST voters lean toward Samuel Adebowale over Umar Mohammed. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Umar Mohammed's vote can be persuaded across to Samuel Adebowale, and 20.0% of Samuel Adebowale's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 1.0 pts of that movable slice.