Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
259 seats, apportioned by share of 6,428,330 votes cast.
Why NORTH_WEST voters lean toward Abdul Okeke over Sani Sanwoolu. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Sani Sanwoolu's vote can be persuaded across to Abdul Okeke, and 20.0% of Abdul Okeke's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.8 pts of that movable slice.