Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Sadiq UzomaNPP Northern People's Congress | 213.9k | 38.0% |
Fatima OjoNPP National Council of Nigeria and the Cameroons | 181.1k | 32.2% |
Sani JohnsonNPP Action Group | 168.0k | 29.8% |
Why NORTH_EAST voters lean toward Sadiq Uzoma over Fatima Ojo. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Fatima Ojo's vote can be persuaded across to Sadiq Uzoma, and 20.0% of Sadiq Uzoma's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.4 pts of that movable slice.