Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Action Group | 166.0k | 38.8% |
Garba PearceNPP National Council of Nigeria and the Cameroons | 147.6k | 34.5% |
Northern People's Congress | 114.0k | 26.7% |
Why SOUTH_SOUTH voters lean toward Garba Pearce over Chinyere Nwankwo. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Chinyere Nwankwo's vote can be persuaded across to Garba Pearce, and 20.0% of Garba Pearce's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.4 pts of that movable slice.