Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
16 seats, apportioned by share of 1,241,644 votes cast.
Why PL_EAS voters lean toward Marian Kaminski over Barbara Nowakowska. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Barbara Nowakowska's vote can be persuaded across to Marian Kaminski, and 20.0% of Marian Kaminski's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.6 pts of that movable slice.