Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
12 seats, apportioned by share of 1,642,057 votes cast.
Why PL_MAL voters lean toward Stefan Jablonski over Lucjan Wilk. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Lucjan Wilk's vote can be persuaded across to Stefan Jablonski, and 20.0% of Stefan Jablonski's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 1.0 pts of that movable slice.