Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
12 seats, apportioned by share of 2,007,475 votes cast.
Why PL_WLK voters lean toward Karol Sadowski over Jozef Kozlowski. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Jozef Kozlowski's vote can be persuaded across to Karol Sadowski, and 20.0% of Karol Sadowski's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.2 pts of that movable slice.