Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
236 seats, apportioned by share of 9,076,773 votes cast.
Why CEN voters lean toward Oksana Gerasimova over Anatoly Vasilyev. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Anatoly Vasilyev's vote can be persuaded across to Oksana Gerasimova, and 20.0% of Oksana Gerasimova's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.0 pts of that movable slice.