Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
72 seats, apportioned by share of 2,237,698 votes cast.
Why ESB voters lean toward Viktor Kovalev over Valiantsina Kazak. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Valiantsina Kazak's vote can be persuaded across to Viktor Kovalev, and 20.0% of Viktor Kovalev's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.4 pts of that movable slice.