Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
132 seats, apportioned by share of 9,609,991 votes cast.
Why NCA voters lean toward Raisa Dmitrieva over Anatoly Sokolov. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Anatoly Sokolov's vote can be persuaded across to Raisa Dmitrieva, and 20.0% of Raisa Dmitrieva's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.8 pts of that movable slice.