Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
195 seats, apportioned by share of 12,829,330 votes cast.
Why VOL voters lean toward Margarita Baranova over Ostap Kovalenko. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Ostap Kovalenko's vote can be persuaded across to Margarita Baranova, and 20.0% of Margarita Baranova's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.7 pts of that movable slice.