Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Adem GencNPP Demokrat Parti | 480.7k | 50.2% |
Tolga DemirNPP Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi | 476.7k | 49.8% |
Why TR_ANK voters lean toward Adem Genc over Tolga Demir. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Tolga Demir's vote can be persuaded across to Adem Genc, and 20.0% of Adem Genc's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.4 pts of that movable slice.