Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Salih AcarNPP Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi | 521.0k | 51.8% |
Nuri YalcinNPP Demokrat Parti | 484.8k | 48.2% |
Why TR_BLA voters lean toward Nuri Yalcin over Salih Acar. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Salih Acar's vote can be persuaded across to Nuri Yalcin, and 20.0% of Nuri Yalcin's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.6 pts of that movable slice.