Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
72 seats, apportioned by share. A Hare quota of 35,147 votes buys one seat; 2 of the 72 were settled on largest remainder.
Why TR_CEN voters lean toward Ercan Turkmen over Zehra Polat. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Zehra Polat's vote can be persuaded across to Ercan Turkmen, and 20.0% of Ercan Turkmen's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.5 pts of that movable slice.