Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Demokrat Parti | 493.9k | 58.2% |
Deniz YalcinNPP Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi | 354.9k | 41.8% |
Why TR_IZM voters lean toward Serkan Toprak over Deniz Yalcin. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Deniz Yalcin's vote can be persuaded across to Serkan Toprak, and 20.0% of Serkan Toprak's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.0 pts of that movable slice.