Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
52 seats, apportioned by share. A Hare quota of 54,822 votes buys one seat; 3 of the 52 were settled on largest remainder.
Why TR_IZM voters lean toward Volkan Yuksel over Ismet Simsek. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Ismet Simsek's vote can be persuaded across to Volkan Yuksel, and 20.0% of Volkan Yuksel's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.4 pts of that movable slice.