Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Tuncay KocNPP Demokrat Parti | 496.7k | 58.5% |
Halil AltunNPP Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi | 352.8k | 41.5% |
Why TR_ANK voters lean toward Tuncay Koc over Halil Altun. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Halil Altun's vote can be persuaded across to Tuncay Koc, and 20.0% of Tuncay Koc's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.2 pts of that movable slice.