Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
Turnout starts with this electorate's usual rate, then responds to the race and campaign.
56 seats, apportioned by share. A Hare quota of 34,679 votes buys one seat; 1 of the 56 were settled on largest remainder.
Why WMI voters lean toward Hamish Hamilton over Sorcha Roberts. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Sorcha Roberts's vote can be persuaded across to Hamish Hamilton, and 20.0% of Hamish Hamilton's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 1.1 pts of that movable slice.