Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
Turnout starts with this electorate's usual rate, then responds to the race and campaign.
A single seat, decided on plurality. Christopher Moore holds 50.5% against 49.5% for the nearest rival.
Why WAL voters lean toward Christopher Moore over Elizabeth MacLeod. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Elizabeth MacLeod's vote can be persuaded across to Christopher Moore, and 20.0% of Christopher Moore's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.2 pts of that movable slice.