Seats projected by demographic reach and regional support each turn.
67 seats, apportioned by share. A Hare quota of 34,258 votes buys one seat; 6 of the 67 were settled on largest remainder.
Why SEE voters lean toward Luke Murray over William Ward. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of William Ward's vote can be persuaded across to Luke Murray, and 20.0% of Luke Murray's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.1 pts of that movable slice.