Votes allocated by demographic reach each turn. Final 4 turns = 25%; earlier turns = 75%.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Farmer-Labor Party | 686.5k | 59.8% |
Peter FordNPP Democratic Party | 462.4k | 40.2% |
Why Iowa voters lean toward Peter Ford over Deborah Young. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Deborah Young's vote can be persuaded across to Peter Ford, and 20.0% of Peter Ford's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.1 pts of that movable slice.