Votes allocated by demographic reach each turn. Final 4 turns = 25%; earlier turns = 75%.
Turnout starts with this electorate's usual rate, then responds to the race and campaign.
A single seat, decided on plurality. Poppy holds 52.8% against 47.2% for the nearest rival.
Why Maryland voters lean toward Carol Scott over Poppy. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Poppy's vote can be persuaded across to Carol Scott, and 20.0% of Carol Scott's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.5 pts of that movable slice.