Votes allocated by demographic reach each turn. Final 4 turns = 25%; earlier turns = 75%.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Maria RossNPP Democratic Party | 928.8k | 52.7% |
Farmer-Labor Party | 834.1k | 47.3% |
Why Missouri voters lean toward Maria Ross over Alejandro Anderson. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Alejandro Anderson's vote can be persuaded across to Maria Ross, and 20.0% of Maria Ross's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to 0.3 pts of that movable slice.