Votes allocated by demographic reach each turn. Final 4 turns = 25%; earlier turns = 75%.
A single seat, decided on plurality. Mayano Top Gun holds 46.8% against 33.8% for the nearest rival.
Why New York voters lean toward Raj Barnes over Mayano Top Gun. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of Mayano Top Gun's vote can be persuaded across to Raj Barnes, and 20.0% of Raj Barnes's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.9 pts of that movable slice.