Votes allocated by demographic reach each turn. Final 4 turns = 25%; earlier turns = 75%.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
Democratic Party | 587.6k | 62.0% |
James RicciNPP Farmer-Labor Party | 360.5k | 38.0% |
Why Oklahoma voters lean toward Ethan Castillo over James Ricci. Each driver is signed: + = lift, − = drag. Drivers are relative within this list and only move the persuadable slice of each party's vote, so their real effect is small. Coattail rows are direct share tilts in %. A raw vote lead does not equal the sum of these bars.
Ceiling this cycle: at most 20.0% of James Ricci's vote can be persuaded across to Ethan Castillo, and 20.0% of Ethan Castillo's vote can be persuaded away. Registration lean sets the starting split and how hard a party is to move, not the final share. These drivers add up to -0.2 pts of that movable slice.